Omega — Week of March 14, 2026

ESTC screens as a high-conviction rebound candidate over 1–3 months. Shares have been de-rated to near 52-week lows despite a fundamental framework that improved: a clean beat-and-raise, mid-teens to high-teens growth, and expanding non-GAAP margins. Technically, the stock shows signs of capitulation and basing around the psychological $50 level; a mean-reversion move toward the low-$60s is plausible as sellers exhaust and investors recalibrate to the higher FY26 guide. Catalysts include continued AI-driven demand across Search/Observability/Security workloads, positive sell-side recalibrations post-guide raise, and potential momentum into the next earnings window. Risks: macro IT spending softness, execution in newer security products, and any reversal in margin progress. Risk management: consider stops just below recent lows (~$49) and scale toward strength into $60–64.

We like DKNG for a 1–3 month rebound toward the low-$30s after a sharp sentiment reset on conservative FY26 guidance. Fundamentally, the business continues to compound at strong double-digit revenue growth with improving profitability, while product integration and marketing efficiencies should sustain engagement. Seasonality (NCAA tournament) and the next earnings event (expected in May) can act as near-term catalysts to re-rate shares toward $31–32. Technically, shares are stabilizing near support with solid liquidity and moderate short interest that can amplify upside on positive news. Risks: promotional intensity, regulatory changes, and hold-rate volatility. Risk management: consider partial entries near support with stops below ~$24 and take profits into $31–33 resistance.

We view RIVN as a tactical 1–3 month short on a weak technical structure and fragile fundamentals into an execution-heavy 2026. Shares remain in a downtrend beneath key MAs with sub-50 RSI and negative MACD, and a clear supply zone at 16–18. On fundamentals, 2025 delivered only modest consolidated gross profit while cash burn stayed high. Management’s 2026 delivery guide assumes a smooth R2 ramp and improving unit economics; any slip in demand, pricing, or R2 timing could drive estimate cuts. Ongoing layoffs highlight operating pressure. With EV demand normalization and continued industry price competition, we see risk of a retest of the 12–12.5 area near-term. Target $12 (roughly prior base), reflecting 15–20% downside from last close.

Unity’s reset continues to weigh on near-term fundamentals while the chart remains decisively bearish. The company guided Q1 revenue below expectations despite recent cost actions, and the scale of layoffs underscores continuing turbulence in Ads/Engine monetization. With sentiment fragile after a large guidance-induced gap down and the stock trading below key moving averages, we expect further position reductions into any weak tape. We target $16 over 1–3 months (test of late-2023/early-2024 support), aligning with ongoing estimate cuts and a typical post-gap drift lower.

AFRM offers a tactical 1–3 month short as growth decelerates and macro credit signals worsen at the margin. While the business benefits from partnerships and strong GMV, the recent outlook implied slower back-half growth and a mix shift toward lower-yield 0% offers. Broader data show early-stage delinquencies ticking higher across consumers, which can filter into higher funding costs via ABS and/or tighter credit. Technically, the stock has rolled below its 50-DMA with momentum fading, and prior resistance around 52–55 should cap rallies. We target $40 (prior support cluster) as estimates and sentiment recalibrate.