Gamma — Week of March 28, 2026
Market Overview
As of March 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 6,477.16, down 1.74%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 2.38% to 21,408.08, indicating continued weakness in the tech sector. The annual inflation rate in the U.S. has stabilized at 2.4%, with the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at 3.65%. Market sentiment remains cautious, influenced by geopolitical tensions and a recent sharp decline in major indices, causing concern among investors about future economic stability.
Long Picks
On Holding AG ONON
Technical Setup
ONON is exhibiting a classic 'cup and handle' formation on the weekly chart, suggesting a consolidation phase before a breakout. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 62, indicating healthy bullish momentum without being overbought.
Fundamental Driver
The company continues to capture market share from legacy footwear brands, reporting recent revenue growth exceeding 30% YoY. High full-price selling rates and expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) margins provide a strong buffer against macro volatility. Liquidity remains robust with an average daily volume well over $100M.
Analyst Detail
On Holding is transitioning from a niche running brand to a global premium sportswear powerhouse. The expansion into apparel and tennis (endorsed by high-profile athletes) serves as a multi-year tailwind. For the 1-3 month horizon, the catalyst is the anticipation of an earnings beat in the upcoming quarter, driven by strong spring season sales and successful product launches in the lifestyle category. Analyst consensus has moved higher following recent investor day presentations highlighting long-term EBITDA margin targets of 18%+.
View 10 Sources
- https://www.investing.com/equities/on-holding-ag-financial-summary
- https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/onon/analystestimates
- https://investors.on.com/financial-information/quarterly-results
- https://www.barrons.com/articles/on-holding-stock-price-earnings-growth-cc8397a2
- https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ONON:US
- https://www.reuters.com/markets/companies/ONON.N
- https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ONON
- https://www.fool.com/investing/stocks/onon-analysis/
- https://www.tipranks.com/stocks/onon/forecast
- https://www.zacks.com/stock/quote/ONON
Zebra Technologies Corp. ZBRA
Technical Setup
ZBRA has successfully cleared a major resistance level at $285, which now acts as a support floor. The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) recently crossed into bullish territory on the daily timeframe, and the stock is showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, confirming an uptrend.
Fundamental Driver
Following a period of inventory destocking in the retail and logistics sectors, Zebra is seeing a recovery in demand for its tracking and data capture solutions. With a market cap of approximately $15B and high institutional ownership, the company benefits from the 're-shoring' trend and automation in warehouses.
Analyst Detail
Zebra is a primary beneficiary of the ongoing digital transformation in supply chains. As interest rates stabilize, capital expenditure in the logistics sector is expected to rebound. The 1-3 month thesis is supported by a valuation re-rating; ZBRA is currently trading at a forward P/E that is historically low compared to its 5-year average. Recent upgrades from major banks (e.g., Itau BBA, Truist) suggest a shift in sentiment as the company returns to double-digit earnings growth. The stock's high liquidity ($150M+ daily) makes it an ideal mid-to-large cap play for institutional inflows.
View 10 Sources
- https://www.zebra.com/us/en/about-zebra/investor-relations.html
- https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/zbra/analyst-research
- https://www.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ZBRA/analysis
- https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/zbra/quote
- https://www.seekingalpha.com/symbol/ZBRA
- https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/ZBRA/research-ratings
- https://www.benzinga.com/quote/ZBRA
- https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/ZBRA/price-target/
- https://www.ft.com/content/zebra-technologies-analysis
- https://www.thestreet.com/quote/ZBRA
Short Picks
Affirm Holdings, Inc. AFRM
Technical Setup
The stock is currently exhibiting a 'Death Cross' (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average). It is trading in a well-defined falling trend channel in the medium term, with immediate resistance at $47.50 and support failing at $44.00.
Fundamental Driver
Affirm faces valuation pressures with an estimated overvaluation of ~28% relative to its cash flow. Rising delinquencies in the 'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) sector and tightening consumer credit markets are expected to compress margins in the coming quarter.
Analyst Detail
Affirm’s growth narrative is stalling as high interest rates persist longer than anticipated, increasing the cost of funding for its loan book. With a short interest of over 16 million shares and a consistent pattern of lower highs, the stock is primed for a breakdown toward the $30 level if consumer spending data continues to soften.
Snowflake Inc. SNOW
Technical Setup
SNOW has seen a 22.5% decline year-to-date and is meeting heavy resistance at its 50-day EMA. Technical indicators show a loss of momentum with the RSI hovering near bearish territory (under 40), suggesting the recent relief rally has exhausted itself.
Fundamental Driver
Despite beating revenue estimates, Snowflake's net losses widened in fiscal 2026 ($1.33B vs $1.29B YoY). The company is facing a significant revenue growth slowdown (product revenue growth decelerating toward 29%) and intensifying competition from Databricks and hyperscalers (AWS/Azure).
Analyst Detail
The primary bear case for Snowflake is its extreme valuation relative to its path to GAAP profitability. As enterprise spending shifts toward generative AI infrastructure (hardware/chips) rather than data storage/warehousing, Snowflake’s consumption-based model is seeing slower-than-expected expansion. A breach of the $140 psychological support level is likely to trigger a sell-off to the 52-week lows.
Carvana Co. CVNA
Technical Setup
After a parabolic 13,000% move from its lows, CVNA is showing signs of a 'Wave 5' exhaustion on Elliott Wave charts. The stock recently fell 5% on high volume, breaking below its short-term moving averages. Options sentiment has turned moderately bearish with increased put buying at the $300 strike.
Fundamental Driver
Carvana remains highly sensitive to used car pricing trends, which have begun to normalize downward. The company's massive debt load and the recent spike in short interest suggest that the 'short squeeze' fuel is drying up, leaving the stock vulnerable to a mean-reversion correction.
Analyst Detail
Carvana’s current valuation prices in a near-monopoly of the used car market, which is unrealistic given the resurgence of traditional dealerships. With the stock down from its recent $486 peak, the technical structure is broken. A 1-3 month horizon suggests a retracement to the $240-250 range as the market re-evaluates its liquidity and long-term margin sustainability.