Omega — Week of June 27, 2026

Core long argument: Micron is the highest-beta memory beneficiary of the AI compute buildout, with HBM capacity effectively sold out through 2026 and margins/earnings undergoing a structural step-up. The stock recently digested a historic earnings beat; with momentum cooled and technicals still constructive, pullbacks into support are buyable for a 1–3 month push toward 1300. Near-term catalyst schedule (next 10–15 sessions): (1) Jul 6, 2026: Ex-dividend date ($0.15) – neutral-to-slightly supportive via income holders. (2) Early July: Industry pricing/bit shipment updates from TrendForce – supportive if DRAM/HBM tightness persists. (3) Ongoing post-earnings analyst target revisions and AI memory newsflow – supportive. Recent move flag: Shares rallied more than 10% over the last week around the earnings print. Despite that pop, RSI has reset and price is consolidating below prior highs; with sold-out HBM capacity, record margins, and continued estimate revisions, the risk-reward remains favorable for a continuation move over the next 1–3 months.

Core long argument: Rivian is approaching a tangible deliveries inflection while expanding into the mass-market with R2, which should widen its addressable base and aid unit economics. The stock sits near support with asymmetric upside into a Q2 deliveries update; a move through 18–19 could quickly target the low-20s, aligning with consensus. Near-term catalyst schedule (next 10–15 sessions): (1) Early July (expected): Q2 2026 production and deliveries press release – supportive if in line/above Visible Alpha consensus; a miss would be a risk to the thesis. (2) Ongoing R2 demo drives/media reviews and feature rollouts – supportive via demand visibility. (3) Next earnings likely in early August (outside this window), but calendar confirmation chatter could appear – neutral. Recent move flag: The stock declined >10% at one point over a recent week; current price remains attractive as it sits near multi-month support, with the upcoming deliveries report offering a defined catalyst that can reset sentiment if execution tracks guidance. Risk is managed against the 14–15 support zone.